Interview: David Wilson
CEO at Energy Exemplar
PLEXOS Helps India Solve the Growing Energy Demand
March 01, 2024. By Anurima Mondal
Que: Can you briefly describe Energy Exemplar's core mission and how it aligns with the evolving energy landscape in India? What unique strengths and capabilities does Energy Exemplar bring to the Indian energy sector?
Ans: Energy Exemplar helps more than 500 customers across 73 countries to analyze energy scenarios for the most accurate outcomes while supporting organizational and digital transformation. We supply energy solutions across the electric, gas and renewables markets and support infrastructure projects, and our integrated energy simulation platform, PLEXOS, is the market leader. PLEXOS informs trading, generation scheduling, capacity expansion and market analysis across multiple industry sectors – all essential for companies and countries navigating energy transition. India is one of them. In order for the country to achieve its aim of reaching net zero by 2070, it requires advanced technology solutions and a workforce skilled in using it. PLEXOS can help decision-makers predict how future events will affect energy supply, demand and pricing and what is needed to onboard new energy sources. It optimizes round-the-clock (RTC) tenders, resource adequacy and renewable energy projects, all of which are vitally important to India’s green strategy.
Que: Can you provide an overview of India's current energy landscape and the unique challenges it presents? How has India's energy landscape transformed over the past decade?
Ans: India’s economy is projected to grow at a rate of 4.7 percent a year until 2050, down from 7.4 percent a year over the past 20 years. It’s a fossil fuel-dominated economy, with a primary energy consumption of 880 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The electricity industry, and transport sectors account for more than 70 percent of the primary energy demand, and 85 percent of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. India has committed to net zero by 2070, and intends both to reduce the emission intensity of its GDP – by 45 percent by 2030, compared to a 2005 baseline – and to meet half of its power generation capacity with non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. India has also revised its 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), appending the original NDC with new targets.
Furthermore, climate action has been taking place at the state and city levels. Mumbai, the most populous city in India, has announced its commitment to reach net zero by 2050. State-level climate action plans are under discussion, too. At the same time, sector targets have begun to emerge, with the Ministry of Steel having set a net-zero commitment by 2070.
India’s final energy demand is expected to double to around 1200 Mtoe by 2070 from the 2020 level. Aggressive energy efficiency measures are expected to be put in place, and they could lead to a relatively modest growth in energy demand compared to normal. The industry sector is likely to contribute 65 to 70 percent to the total energy demand. In the transport sector, passenger and freight demand is expected to increase by three to five times by 2070. However, energy demand will remain moderate due to a high uptake of electric vehicles, with higher energy conversion efficiency.
Growing electricity demand requires grid expansion at the same time as decarbonization. India’s transport electrification is steadily growing, but it needs to accelerate. There’s also a need for cost-effective capacity expansion, an increasing share of renewable energy in the overall energy mix, and sufficient granularity in resource adequacy planning. Since resource adequacy became a focus of Indian policy, there has been a great deal of pressure on distribution companies (DISCOMs) and states to make clear plans for it.
Que: Are there any global parallels or best practices that India can draw upon to navigate the challenges in its energy sector?
Ans: The energy transition means there’s an urgent need for fundamental changes in electricity market operations. This is particularly true in areas which require scientific means of forecasting and planning, incentivizing flexibility, exploiting the diversity of a large and synchronous grid, introducing time-sequential market options, and bringing in well-developed ancillary services to improve grid reliability.
Modeling sub-hourly intervals is crucial for grids with high renewables and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) due to the intermittent and variable nature of renewable energy sources. Sub-hourly modeling allows for a more accurate representation of rapid fluctuations in renewable generation and dynamic energy storage system behaviours. This fine-grained approach enables better optimization of BESS operation, ensuring timely response to sudden changes in energy production or demand.
PLEXOS, with its advanced optimization and simulation capabilities, excels in managing sub-hourly data. Its advantages lie in its ability to capture the intricacies of short-term variations, optimize dispatch strategies, and assess the economic and technical feasibility of integrating renewables and BESS into the grid. PLEXOS facilitates precise decision-making, enhancing grid reliability, reducing costs, and maximizing the utilization of renewable resources and energy storage assets in a high-paced energy landscape.
PLEXOS is a unified energy market modeling tool used globally by different sets of clients - grid operators, utilities, transmission network providers, project developers, policymakers, energy regulators, investment banks and Govt. bodies. PLEXOS is capable of solving different challenges in the energy sector from energy planning and optimization to reaching decarbonization goals.
Some of the main global use cases of PLEXOS showcase its unique ability to deal with the growing APAC energy sector-
• Australia - PLEXOS is used for Integrated Resources Planning (ISP) to transform the National Energy Market (NEM), from fossil fuel to firmed Renewables.
• Singapore - The Energy Market Authority (EMA) of Singapore uses PLEXOS to enhance its Wholesale Energy Market.
• Indonesia - Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), Indonesia's energy distributor uses PLEXOS for long-term energy planning and decarbonization of their energy sector.
• International Energy Agency (IEA) - The International Energy Agency uses PLEXOS for long-term techno-economic analysis of various sectors within the energy industry from fossil fuel, and renewable energy resources to emerging technologies.
• ASEAN - The ASEAN region has planned to build an interconnected energy grid to promote the development of low-carbon energy transmission and the retirement of fossil fuel assets. Various stakeholders in the region are utilizing PLEXOS to optimize the power sector in their region as well as planning inter-regional energy transfer between neighbouring nations.
Que: Can you share examples of specific projects or initiatives where advanced analytics tools like PLEXOS have been instrumental in optimizing India's energy infrastructure?
Ans: Yes, there are a number of activities we could mention. Resource adequacy and capacity planning for one. Also, the integration of renewable energy into the grid. Decarbonisation pathways, at both state and national level; and the optimisation of Distribution Companies’ portfolios. Tools like PLEXOS have also been or will be instrumental in policy making at every level, in the operation of the market at the system operator level, and in Power to X (usually power-to-hydrogen or power-to-ammonia) modeling. ReNew, the largest pure-play renewable energy company in India, has used PLEXOS since 2022 to simulate the grid and all interconnected grids, including from neighbouring countries, so it can make major investment decisions.
Que: The energy sector in India is rapidly evolving. What are the key skills areas that Energy Exemplar can address with its profound expertise in the sector? What challenges have you encountered, and what strategies have proven effective in overcoming them?
Ans: Our expertise means that we can make key contributions in training power industry personnel in advanced energy modeling, in digitisation or automation, and in knowledge-sharing around relevant use cases and the dissemination of global best practices. The main challenges we have encountered include the need to upskill a large number of people and increase understanding in the modeling space. We have also discovered that industry does not have resources allocated specifically to modeling and strategic analysis with advanced tools. There is also, inevitably, some resistance to change and an attachment to more traditional ways of working. And there is some difficulty keeping up with the pace of change: new technologies are emerging and need to be incorporated into the grid: solar, wind and battery, for instance. These challenges will be overcome, however. There is a real enthusiasm in India’s energy space for tools like PLEXOS and optimism about what it can help to achieve.
Que: Are there any collaborative efforts or partnerships with educational institutions or government agencies that Energy Exemplar is involved in to upskill the workforces in the energy sector? India's energy transition successes could have ripple effects acro
Ans: Energy Exemplar is hugely supportive of academia and strengthening relations between academia and industry. Research and academic institutions are the backbone of industry, and we provide licenses to various universities in India. We are very interested in collaborating with other institutions and universities. We also did a one-of-a-kind large-scale training program in Mumbai, where we trained more than 105 industry personnel in using PLEXOS.
India is an important player in Southeast Asia, and already has bilateral trade agreements in place with Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. The Indian government is now speaking with other Southeast Asian countries to explore how to connect the grid across countries. The Indian Prime Minister has a great vision of One Sun One World, and is taking key steps to connect countries and create one common grid.
Que: Are there specific initiatives or strategies that Energy Exemplar is pursuing to leverage India's experience and expertise to benefit the broader Asian energy landscape? What potential challenges or opportunities do you foresee as India continues its ener
Ans: Yes, absolutely. In the current energy landscape, all countries face similar challenges and undertaking a successful energy transition requires tools like PLEXOS, which can provide the timely insights needed to take critical planning decisions. The immediate challenge that India is facing is to match its demand with proper supply; it needs to work on supply adequacy and at the same time have a sound plan in action to handle integrating a high quantity of renewable energy into the national grid over the coming years. There will be a huge amount of investment, and Energy Exemplar can help India’s power and renewable industry make the most of their investment. We can help India to optimize round-the-clock (RTC) tenders, undertake analyses on new build capacity and develop an integrated energy model. We can help with proper resource planning so that India can meet its net zero goal.
Que: Given the Indian government's focus on renewable energy and green hydrogen projects, how critical is the role of advanced simulation platforms like PLEXOS in safeguarding these investments? Can you provide examples of how PLEXOS or similar modeling tools
Ans: The growing renewable energy sector comes with wide arrays of both opportunities and challenges. Under SECI tenders, the selected power generator commits to supplying a fixed capacity of electricity around the clock, typically from a combination of renewable energy sources like solar, wind, hydro, or biomass, and sometimes complemented by other sources like natural gas or coal. This type of tender aims to provide a reliable and stable supply of electricity, which is crucial for meeting the base load demand of consumers.
PLEXOS can help with solving the critical challenges when participating in India’s growing renewable energy sector:
• PLEXOS helps to identify the optimal built size and capacity of each of the solar, wind and battery assets required
• Determine when a particular technology needs to be built and the optimal time for its retirement
• Model uncertainties of renewable energy generation to minimize project risk
• Model both system and tender-specific constraints or project obligations
• Keep track of asset performance and market sales from long-term to a very granular level of optimal dispatch
• Deciding when to sell, how much to sell and where to sell to maximize net profit besides fulfilling main PPA obligations
Hydrogen is another emerging sector in India. Many developers and stakeholders are looking into developing particularly green hydrogen generated from renewable energy sources. PLEXOS can help model any type of electrolyzer using its powerful P2X class and can optimize both the sizing of the electrolyzer as well as the required Renewable Energy assets to power the electrolyzer for H2 production.
Que: What advice or insights can you share with investors and stakeholders looking to make significant energy investments in India regarding the use of modeling and simulation tools to mitigate risks and maximize returns?
Ans: PLEXOS is the ideal tool when it comes to modeling the energy sector of India. PLEXOS helps India solve the growing energy demand as well as reach its decarbonization goal.
please contact: contact@energetica-india.net.