Nickel: The Key to India’s Net-Zero Emission Strategy

The demand for nickel in clean technologies is set to rise sharply, with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report titled 'Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024' projecting an increase from 478 kilotonnes (Kt) in 2023 to 3,381 Kt by 2040, a massive 607 percent jump.

In contrast, other nickel-based applications are expected to grow at a much slower rate of 8.7 percent, increasing from 2,627 Kt to 2,857 Kt during the same period. The data highlights nickel’s growing significance in the transition to low-carbon technologies, particularly in EV batteries, renewable energy storage, and green hydrogen production.

An overwhelming portion of mined and refined nickel will be used to manufacture for low-carbon technologies like producing the cathode material for lithium-ion batteries to power electric vehicles (EVs). Or its increased use in improving the performance of the lithium-ion batteries and in manufacturing high-performance alloys used in wind turbines and solar panels, as well as for catalysts for green hydrogen production. Only a small portion of the overall share of nickel will go to the construction, petrochemicals, automobiles, fabrication and welding businesses.

The exponential growth in nickel consumption in the modern world becomes clear from a few more numbers. In 2023, global automakers sold 14 million EVs, a 35 percent growth compared to a year earlier. This growth rate in adoption is likely to continue not just in the developed markets but also pick up pace in emerging economies.

More importantly, if the world wants to limit global warming to 1.5 °C (the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 [NZE] scenario), the share of electric car sales will rise from 18 percent in 2023 to 65 percent in 2030, pushing up demand for batteries by a factor of seven to 6 TWh in 2030, argues the Global Critical Mineral Outlook report of the IEA. The move to a low-carbon economy will see a doubling of nickel demand by 2040.

The report further points out that India, too, has ambitious decarbonisation goals, including having a major share of solar and wind energy in the overall energy basket and using green hydrogen to power ships and heavy trucks, including achieving a net-zero emission target by 2070. But these targets can only be achieved once the country starts large-scale mining and refining nickel to reduce its import dependency, which is nearly 100 percentt today.

As Prashuk Jain, Chief Operating Officer, Vedanta Nico, a subsidiary of Vedanta Ltd., points out, the demand for nickel in clean technologies – particularly in EV batteries, renewable energy storage, and hydrogen applications – is projected to surge dramatically by 2040. As India progresses toward its net-zero commitments, reducing our near-total import dependency on nickel is crucial. Increasing domestic mining and refining capabilities will not only strengthen India's industrial ecosystem but also secure a sustainable and resilient supply chain for the green economy of the future. Vedanta Nico is currently spearheading the refining space in India with a 6KTPA refinery for Nickel Cathode and EV Battery-grade Nickel Sulphate.

According to Volza's India Import data, India imported 55,206 shipments of nickel from March 2023 to February 2024 (TTM). These imports were supplied by 5,893 foreign exporters to 3,044 Indian buyers, marking a growth rate of 6 percent compared to the preceding 12 months.

Expressing its concern over the presence of nickel in few countries, the report said, "What is more worrying is the fact that an overwhelming majority of mining and refining activities is concentrated in a few countries. In 2024, for instance, Indonesia produced more than 50 percent of the world’s nickel, up from 28 per cent just four years ago."

Its share, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), is expected to touch 63 percent by 2030. Even the majority of nickel refining is controlled by two countries, such as Indonesia and China, which has set up many processing plants in the Southeast Asian country.

Hence, achieving self-sufficiency becomes an imperative if India wishes to achieve its decarbonisation strategy with a focus on clean technologies. The country made a start in domestic nickel production with the acquisition of Nicomet Industries Ltd., a major producer of nickel and cobalt based in Goa, by Vedanta Nico. It has made Vedanta Nico the sole producer of the critical metal in India. It hopes to increase its current production of 7.5 KTPA (Kilo Tonnes Per Annum) of nickel metal to meet 50 percent of India’s nickel demand in the coming years.

To accelerate the growth of this sector, the government can play a decisive role by providing incentives/subsidies for nickel mining, easy forest and environmental clearances, greater thrust on public-private partnerships and a special focus on research and development.