IESA Report Predicts Operational EVs in India to Cross 28 Million Units by 2030
It is predicted that 83 percent of the annual sales would be e-2wheelers, 10 percent would be e-4wheelers, and commercial vehicles such as trucks, buses, and three-wheelers contributing to 7 percent of sales.
February 21, 2025. By Aishwarya
As the country continues to make significant and sustained inroads in its decarbonization journey, with the rapid increase in sales of Electric vehicles, supported by demand and supply incentives, growing consumer demand, and a focus on developing charging infrastructure.
The future outlook for electric vehicle sales continues to be positive, driven by increasing environmental awareness, customer interest, advancements in battery technology, and readily available and easily accessible EV charging infrastructure. India's cumulative electric vehicle (EV) sales have crossed 4.1 million units in the fiscal year 2023-2024.
It is predicted that 83 percent of the annual sales would be e-2wheelers, 10 percent would be e-4wheelers, and commercial vehicles such as trucks, buses, and three-wheelers contributing to 7 percent of sales.
Vinayak Walimbe, Managing Director at Customized Energy Solutions Pvt. Ltd. India and President (Interim), India Energy Storage Alliance emphasized, “India has witnessed a substantial rise in the electricity consumption, reaching 1,543 TWh in 2023-24 (7 percent increase over last year). According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), electricity consumption at public charging infrastructure was 465 GWh from April to October 2024 which has more than doubled compared to 204 GWh in 2022-2023. Additionally, with the majority of EV users opting for the convenience of Home charging, the IESA estimate of energy demand for EV charging in FY 2024-2025 is 4000 GWh and likely to increase to 38 TWh by FY 2031-2032 with maximum power demand estimated at 366.4GW.”
The Ministry of Power (MoP) has prepared a strategic roadmap, National Electricity Plan which is a comprehensive 10-year roadmap crucial for advancing future strategies and helping ensure energy security. India is the third-largest producer and consumer of electricity in the world.
The National Electricity Plan forecasts Total annual demand on the Indian power grid to rise to 2133 TWh by 2031-32 and as per IESA estimation, EV charging would likely constitute around ~3 percent of this demand.
According to the IESA report, the total installed capacity (of India) is required to grow from 466 GW in January 2025 to 900 GW by 2032. This includes 500 GW of renewable sources, wind, small hydro, and others (from 165 GW installed capacity in Jan 2025). This plan serves as a blueprint to expedite the deployment of EV charging infrastructure to cater to future EV charging demand and increase charging stations to about 100,000 by 2030. (Current Base ~ 34,000 EV charging stations) and considers the likely impact of various emerging aspects and government initiatives/policies such as energy efficiency measures, penetration of electric vehicles, solar rooftops, National Hydrogen Mission, PM KUSUM Yojna, etc. for assessing the electricity demand in the future.
It is expected that 70 percent of e-4wheelers and e-2wheelers will be charged during off-peak periods after 8 pm. In the e-Truck segment around 60 percent would be charged during daytime as they ply in the night, followed by mid-day charging. In the electric bus segment, as the majority of intercity buses travel during the night, daytime charging is preferred, and intra-city buses are charged overnight. Overall, it is expected that the peak charging period would be from 9 pm to 5 am and 12- 2 pm.
While overall capacity planning is well defined, a look at the hourly demand curve shows energy demand peaking during periods when renewable energy is not available (2100 to 0600 hours) thereby highlighting the need for Battery Energy Storage as a viable option to help harness Renewable energy and minimize incremental investments in grid capacity to help meet peak demand. To support the demand on the grid, BESS requirements of 47 GW/237 GWh will be required to be integrated with the grid in addition to Pumped Hydro storage (~26GW).
In preparation for the Energy security plan, the Ministry of Power is pioneering initiatives like the Integrated Local Energy Systems initiative between India and the EU, which aims to integrate energy vectors like electricity, heating, cooling, water, wastes, etc., including possibilities offered by batteries and electric vehicles, interconnect them and optimize joint operation with increased share of renewables and higher energy efficiency.
Additionally, demand response initiatives like Electric vehicle ‘smart charging’ based on the V2G concept where electric vehicles are an integral part of the grid and are charged or discharged in response to external signals or dynamic prices will have an important role to play in the future. With India pursuing its ambitious EV adoption and energy transition goals, ensuring energy security will be paramount for the continued growth of our rapidly expanding economy.
please contact: contact@energetica-india.net.
Manjula Girish
Business Head, EV Charging and Photovoltaic Inverter Division
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