Global PV Capacity to Hit 520 GW by 2024, China Leads with 240 GW
The global photovoltaic market is set to expand significantly by 2024, driven by China, with notable growth in the US, Europe, and emerging markets. Challenges persist amid market volatility.
September 03, 2024. By EI News Network
Speaking at the event, he provided a detailed forecast for the global photovoltaic (PV) market, highlighting an impressive expansion trajectory. He disclosed that China is expected to play a pivotal role in this growth, contributing approximately 240 GW of the total capacity. Other regions are also showing promising developments. In Australia, the annual grid-connected PV capacity is around 5 GW. Japan's capacity is expected to be between 4 to 5 GW, while South Korea's PV market is surpassing 3 GW.
The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, is accelerating its installations, with forecasts of reaching 16 GW in 2024. The U.S. is projected to approach 50 GW in installed PV capacity, and Europe’s market is anticipated to reach nearly 100 GW, with a significant emphasis on distributed generation. Africa’s PV market, with a focus on South Africa, is expected to exceed 10 GW, and there is an anticipated annual energy storage demand of about 3 GWh, with over 1.5 GWh expected to be grid-connected in the latter half of 2024.
In the first half of 2024, China demonstrated remarkable growth in the photovoltaic sector, adding 102.48 GW of new capacity, a 31 percent increase from the previous year. This includes 49.6 GW from centralized PV projects and 52.88 GW from distributed systems. By mid-2024, China’s total grid-connected PV capacity reached 712.93 GW, comprising 403.42 GW from centralized installations and 309.51 GW from distributed systems, including 131.84 GW from residential PV. China’s advanced PV supply chain continues to support its leading market position, with an expected full-year installation target exceeding 240 GW. The proportion of PV power generation is also increasing, anticipated to reach 9% of the total power generation for the year.
The United States is witnessing substantial growth in photovoltaic power, accounting for 59 percent of all newly added power generation in the first half of 2024. The installed capacity for large-scale ground-mounted PV technologies reached 20.2 GW, an increase of 3.6 GW compared to the previous year. The second half of 2024 is expected to add 42.6 GW, with large-scale ground-mounted PV contributing 25 GW, bringing the total new PV installed capacity for the year to 37 GW. This marks a significant increase from the 18.8 GW achieved in 2023 and sets a new annual record. However, the introduction of high anti-circumvention tariffs on modules and cells from Southeast Asia, effective from June 6, poses a risk to future U.S. installations.
In Europe, the cumulative PV capacity stood at 263 GW by the end of 2023, nearing the 2025 target. Although traditional energy cost reductions and slow power plant approvals may dampen installation enthusiasm for 2024, the long-term outlook remains positive. Germany is expected to be the largest market in Europe, with 19 percent of PV module demand, followed by Poland, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. Despite current challenges such as declining traditional energy prices and reduced subsidies, EU policies aimed at achieving net-zero carbon targets by 2030 are likely to drive continued growth. Demand for PV modules in Europe is projected to range between 95.1 GW and 111.3 GW in 2025, reflecting a 9-18 percent increase from this year.
Despite these positive trends, the photovoltaic industry faces several challenges. Fluctuations in raw material prices, including a more than 40% drop in polysilicon and silicon wafer prices and a 15% reduction in cell and module prices in the first half of 2024, are putting pressure on companies. The industry is also dealing with stringent Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) requirements. Geopolitical tensions and tight monetary policies contribute to global economic uncertainties, while rapid transitions to green energy models are reshaping market dynamics.
The demand for photovoltaic cables, essential in the PV industry chain, is expected to rise in tandem with the growth of the PV sector. According to the Renewable Energy Association, a 1 MW PV power plant requires about 12 kilometers of PV direct current (DC) cables. The global demand for these cables is projected to reach 5.76 million kilometers in 2024, 6.6 million kilometers in 2025, and 7.26 million kilometers in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 26 percent, 15 percent, and 10 percent, respectively.
In conclusion, the global photovoltaic industry is on a robust growth trajectory, with significant increases in installed capacity anticipated across key regions. However, the sector must address challenges related to raw material price volatility, regulatory pressures, and economic uncertainties. Continued technological advancements and strategic responses will be crucial for companies to remain competitive and advance toward a sustainable energy future.
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