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Global Offshore Wind Installations Set to Exceed 520 GW by 2040 Despite Challenges

Despite inflation and supply chain issues, global offshore wind installations are projected to grow steadily, with Europe and Asia leading the way, aiming to exceed 520 GW by 2040.

August 23, 2024. By EI News Network

The global offshore wind sector continues to push forward despite challenges from inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, persistently pursuing its ambitious growth targets, as per the Rystad Energy in its recent report.

The report further said, "These issues have led to postponed permitting processes, delayed auctions, and a slow build-up of necessary supply chains. However, despite these obstacles, the sector demonstrated resilience in 2023, recording a 7 percent increase in new capacity additions compared to the previous year. This positive momentum is expected to continue, with Rystad Energy predicting a 9 percent growth in new capacity additions, bringing the total to over 11 GW by the end of 2024."

The report forecasts that this upward trend will continue, with global offshore wind installations (excluding mainland China) projected to surpass 520 GW by 2040. Europe is expected to lead this growth, relying heavily on floating wind technology to meet ambitious national targets and capitalise on its abundant offshore resources. By 2040, Europe is projected to account for more than 70 percent of global floating wind installations.

"Although some project delays beyond 2030 are anticipated, there is likely to be a concerted push to accelerate deployment, with floating wind capacity expected to approach 90 GW by 2040. The United Kingdom, France, and Portugal are set to lead this development," said the report.

Asia will also play a crucial role in advancing floating wind as a mature technology. The region, excluding mainland China, is expected to capture a 20 percent share of global floating wind installations by 2040. However, the floating wind sector, much like its bottom-fixed counterpart, currently faces supply chain constraints that could hinder its progress in the short term. Estimates suggest that floating wind capacity may remain below 7 GW by 2030, highlighting the need for increased government support to overcome these hurdles.

The global offshore wind industry is witnessing robust growth, driven by heightened investment and increased auction activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks continue to pose significant challenges to the sector's further expansion. While ambitious targets have boosted investor confidence, addressing these logistical issues is critical to ensuring that offshore wind can play a central role in the global energy transition. Successfully overcoming these challenges will not only help the technology mature but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires continued investor reliance," noted the report.

Further, it pointed out that in the bottom-fixed wind market, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands are expected to emerge as dominant players. Their proximity to the North Sea and extensive maritime areas provide a strong foundation for success in offshore wind, supported by their installation goals and net-zero targets. These three countries are projected to collectively achieve 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040. The United States is expected to follow with less than 40 GW, though the future of the US market remains uncertain and could be significantly influenced by political developments.

However, concerns have been raised that if Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, were to win the 2024 election, his administration might impede the progress of offshore wind development.

Moreover, between 2025 and 2030, the Americas, led by the United States, are expected to see substantial growth, beginning with close to 2 GW of installed capacity in 2025. Asia, excluding mainland China, is anticipated to follow with 7 GW in 2025, expanding to nearly 28 GW by 2030, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam emerging as major markets in the region. Europe is projected to have 41 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and more than 112 GW by 2030, driven by a steady stream of projects awarded through competitive auctions.

Looking further ahead to the period between 2030 and 2035, continued growth is anticipated in Asia (excluding mainland China), followed by the Americas and Europe. During this period, Latin America, particularly Brazil and Colombia, is also expected to begin contributing to offshore wind capacity in the Americas.

The long-term forecast for the floating wind sector suggests a different trajectory from the bottom-fixed market. From 2025 to 2030, only Asia and Europe are expected to be actively installing floating wind capacity. By 2030, Europe is projected to have installed nearly 5 GW of floating wind, while Asia, excluding mainland China, is expected to add 2 GW.

"In the following five-year period from 2030 to 2035, a substantial ramp-up in floating wind installations is anticipated. Europe is expected to add 20 GW of floating wind capacity, and Asia, excluding mainland China, up to 5 GW. Floating wind projects in other regions are not expected to be installed until the 2035 to 2040 period, when the technology is predicted to advance toward maturity. By 2040, Europe is expected to have installed more than 65 GW of floating wind capacity, while installations in Asia, excluding mainland China, are projected to reach 17 GW. This marks a significant advancement as the technology matures and becomes a key component of the global offshore wind industry," the report said.

Tags:

Wind Power

Global Offshore Wind Installations

Rystad Energy

floating wind capacity