Floating Solar in Saudi Arabia Could Achieve LCOE of USD 0.053/kWh, Says Study

A new techno-economic analysis conducted by researchers from King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) in Saudi Arabia has revealed the substantial potential for floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) systems in the country.

The study found that the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for FPV projects could be as low as USD 0.053/kWh, making it a highly competitive and economically viable renewable energy option. The research assessed three locations with varying climatic and topographical features: the King Fahad Dam in the ‘Asir Region, Wadi Namar Dam south of Riyadh, and Hali Dam in Mecca Province. Each site was evaluated for its suitability to host FPV systems, taking into account factors such as water depth, solar irradiation, wind speed, and cooling efficiency. Among the three, the King Fahad Dam was found to be the most promising due to its optimal conditions for solar energy generation.

The analysis revealed that King Fahad Dam had the highest solar irradiation of 2.38 MW/m²/year, followed by Wadi Namar Dam at 2.19 MW/m²/year and Hali Dam at 2.07 MW/m²/year. These variations in solar irradiation levels have a significant impact on the performance and energy output of FPV systems, with the higher irradiation at King Fahad Dam positioning it as the best site for maximising energy production.

Additionally, the greater water depth at King Fahad and Hali dams is expected to enhance cooling, which is crucial for improving the efficiency of solar panels. The study also emphasised the importance of wind speed in the cooling process, noting that higher wind speeds at these locations could further optimise the performance of solar modules, contributing to better overall system efficiency.

The research team proposed installing a 1 MW grid-connected FPV system at each of the three sites, utilising pontoons made from hollow plastic floats. These pontoons provide a cost-effective and efficient method for supporting the solar modules in a floating configuration. The study evaluated several solar module technologies from leading manufacturers, including JA Solar, Suntech, LG, Sunpower, and Greentech, with solar panel efficiencies ranging from 18.0 percent to 20.4 percent. The total installation area for each system was estimated at 4,899 m², with the aim of optimising energy generation at each site based on its unique environmental characteristics.

The economic analysis revealed that King Fahad Dam achieved the lowest LCOE at USD 0.053/kWh, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s household electricity tariff of USD 0.048/kWh and remaining competitive with industrial tariffs of USD 0.080/kWh.

This makes the King Fahad Dam an ideal candidate for large-scale FPV deployment, offering significant potential for cost-effective energy generation. In comparison, Wadi Hali Dam and Wadi Namar Dam showed higher LCOEs of USD 0.063/kWh, but still within a range that would make these projects economically feasible. The return on investment (ROI) for Wadi Hali Dam was found to be the shortest at 12 years, while King Fahad and Wadi Namar dams had an ROI of 13 years.

These findings suggest that floating solar systems could play a key role in Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy strategy, with potential for future investment and large-scale deployment in the coming years.